Silver Linings: Silver's Sallying Surge!

Darling All,

Disclaimer: Please note this is not investment advice.
But you will need a large cup of caffeine! 

As we welcome in the New Year, Magpies, Silver continues to sally forth at $89.00 per ounce as at time of writing (13^th January 2026). The move is striking when compared to our last Silver Knowledge Drop in October 2025, when Silver stood at USD $53.00 per ounce. So, effectively Silver is doing what high-beta metals do best: moving and grooving with conviction, which is interesting in itself as it shows the surge is structural exposing the growing chasm between paper expectation and physical reality, thereby challenging the market cycle.

Silver’s Surge: A Shift In Narrative

In our previous article, we explored Silver’s dual identity as both investment hedge and industrial backbone. So, what’s changed?

China’s reported halt on Silver exports (1^st January 2026) has introduced a quietly profound shift. China does not restrict outbound flows of strategic materials without intent. When exports are curbed, it is typically about domestic prioritisation, strategic stockpiling, or geopolitical leverage.

This is not a demand story – it is a supply story. By limiting exports, less Silver reaches global markets, increasing strain on supply chains that are already jolly tight.  In a market that remains heavily influenced by Futures Pricing and theoretical abundance, this development should not be underestimated.

Layer onto this the broader geopolitical climate – the uneasy balance between China and Taiwan, the grinding conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and tensions involving Iran, Venezuela and the United States – and the conclusion becomes unavoidable. 

Strategic metals are once again tools of policy, not merely commodities of trade. Silver’s pricing is effectively being shaped by geopolitics.

The Silver Paradox: Futures vs Fundamentals

Despite tightening fundamentals, Futures markets continue to imply softer prices ahead. This is Silver’s enduring contradiction. On paper, supply appears manageable. In reality, it is anything but.

Industrial demand is non-discretionary. Solar panels, EVs, semiconductors, AI infrastructure and defence systems cannot substitute Silver at scale. Meanwhile, mine supply growth remains subdued, ore grades are declining, and recycling fails to close the gap. Add sovereign accumulation and strategic hoarding, and the Futures Curve begins to resemble staunch belief rather than foresight.

In effect, the paper Silver market signals comfort with future supply, while physical markets signal tightening. This divergence cannot persist indefinitely. When confidence in paper claims meets the immovable reality of metal that must be delivered, repricing is rarely gentle. The uncomfortable question remains: what exactly is the Futures Market pricing in?  Geopolitics doesn’t roll contracts, Central Banks don’t trade charts, Industrial Demand doesn’t hedge. Silver, once again, is exposing the fault lines and the question now is not if it reprices — but when and at what level?

Central Banks and Quiet Signals

A brief reminder from our October 2025 Silver Knowledge Drop: Silver has long sat outside the traditional reserve-asset playbook due to its volatility. That said, in late 2024 the Central Bank of Russia formally added Silver to its strategic reserves – a quiet move with meaningful implications. Elsewhere, official silence persists. China and India remain non-committal, though India’s Diwali 2025 retail run on physical Silver – including vending machines selling out – suggests grassroots demand tells a different story. And looming over the market remains the long-standing street narrative around JPMorgan Chase’s vast, opaque Silver holdings, accumulated quietly while prices weren’t in vogue.

An Argent Coda 

So, Magpies, as we said back in October 2025, whether you are a fully-fledged Silverbug or not there is no mistaking it Silver is delivering its own message. What began as a rally now looks increasingly like a re-rating and the market would do well to listen. As long as physical Silver remains scarce and global and industrial pressures persist, short-term swings aside, the bigger forces continue to drive Silver higher. 

“Hi Ho Silver Lining and away you go!” Jeff Beck 

Stay sparkling!

With love from Emma and the Baroque Rocks Team

P.S. If you like what you read and it brings a smile, do spread the sparkle and share it with friends!